As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová at 78.5% in UFC Fight Night: Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) — $3.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová, is priced at 78.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: -28.5 pts.
Since October 17, 2026, Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová has traded between 50.0% and 82.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 78.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 78.5% |
Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová is favored at 78.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová | 78¢ | 78.5% | -4.0 pts | $3.4K | 100.0% |
| Lisboa to win by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Szabová to win by KO/TKO? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds: Over | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds: Under | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lisboa in Round 1 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lisboa in Round 2 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lisboa in Round 3 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Szabová in Round 1 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Szabová in Round 2 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Szabová in Round 3 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Decision or Draw | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Tainara Lisboa | 22¢ | 21.5% | +4.0 pts | $3.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 21¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.4K has been traded on this event in total, $3.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Tainara Lisboa" if Tainara Lisboa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Lucia Szabová at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Lucia Szabová" if Lucia Szabová is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,272 shares of Lucia Szabová.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scornful-West | Lucia Szabová | 3,272 | $2.6K |
| Scarce-Divider | Tainara Lisboa | 2,793 | $600 |
| Fake-Bitter | Tainara Lisboa | 524 | $113 |
| Excitable-Chime-Basil | Tainara Lisboa | 43 | $9 |
| Reflecting-Assassination | Lucia Szabová | 43 | $34 |
| Golden-Orientation | Lucia Szabová | 33 | $26 |
| Watery-Cloak | Lucia Szabová | 25 | $20 |
| Whirlwind-Cooking | Tainara Lisboa | 25 | $5 |
| Valid-Custody | Lucia Szabová | 12 | $9 |
| Yearly-Earnings-Leek | Lucia Szabová | 10 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:45 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:18 PM ET | Lucia Szabová | BUY | 79.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | Lucia Szabová | BUY | 78.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | Lucia Szabová | BUY | 78.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 23.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 21.0% | $587 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 20.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 20.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:47 PM ET | Tainara Lisboa | BUY | 20.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová at 78.5%. Next is Lisboa to win by KO/TKO? at 50.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-tai2-lucsza-2026-10-31?via=bro
$3.4K in total volume, with $3.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ufc.com/events.
Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová: Lucia Szabová, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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