As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.8% in UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? — $27.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since April 27, 2026, No has traded between 90.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 95.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.8% |
No is favored at 95.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.8% | +0.1 pts | $27.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.2% | -0.1 pts | $27.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline. The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,597 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0eab29f9… | Yes | 4,597 | $195 |
| Left-Peripheral | No | 3,375 | $3.2K |
| Venerated-Couch | Yes | 3,304 | $140 |
| Tattered-Strait | Yes | 1,986 | $84 |
| Sunny-Mix | No | 1,417 | $1.4K |
| Somber-Notepad | Yes | 1,187 | $50 |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | No | 1,107 | $1.1K |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | No | 860 | $823 |
| Minty-Maternity | No | 805 | $771 |
| Amused-Appreciation | No | 787 | $754 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 01:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $1.2K |
| Oct 22, 11:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $1.1K |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 05:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $30 |
| Oct 12, 08:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $9 |
| Oct 10, 11:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 10:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $55 |
| Oct 08, 12:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $146 |
| Oct 06, 02:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.7% | $25 |
| Oct 05, 12:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $25 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.8%. Next is Yes at 4.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uk-announces-transfer-of-falklands-to-argentina-in-2026?via=bro
$27.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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