As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? — $127.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since November 20, 2025, No has traded between 45.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.5% | — | $127.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $127.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$127.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,851 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished-Wind | No | 10,851 | $10.5K |
| Limited-Graphic | Yes | 8,712 | $309 |
| Genuine-Armpit | Yes | 5,626 | $200 |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 5,234 | $186 |
| United-Field | No | 2,289 | $2.2K |
| Spry-Material | No | 2,080 | $2.0K |
| Joint-Washbasin | No | 1,576 | $1.5K |
| Tedious-Accordance | No | 1,551 | $1.5K |
| Superb-Invite | Yes | 999 | $35 |
| Poor-Tavern | No | 490 | $473 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 07:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 02:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $67 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $104 |
| Oct 20, 09:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 09:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $963 |
| Oct 20, 06:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-agrees-to-limit-size-of-armed-forces-before-2027?via=bro
$127.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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