Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? — $127.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
96%
A 96.5% price implies roughly a 96-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −2.5 pts30D −5.0 pts
No96.5%
Yes3.5%
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since November 20, 2025: 45.5% – 97.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Category
Politics, Ukraine, Geopolitics, Ukraine Peace Deal
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$127.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$16.3K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 96.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.

Since November 20, 2025, No has traded between 45.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 96.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202695.8%
Oct 16, 202696.3%
Oct 18, 202694.0%
Oct 19, 202694.6%
Oct 20, 202697.0%
Oct 23, 202696.5%
Oct 24, 202696.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 96.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No96¢96.5%—$127.9K100.0%
Yes4¢3.5%—$127.9K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$127.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count. Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify. An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,851 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Finished-WindNo10,851$10.5K
Limited-GraphicYes8,712$309
Genuine-ArmpitYes5,626$200
Dearest-AgendaYes5,234$186
United-FieldNo2,289$2.2K
Spry-MaterialNo2,080$2.0K
Joint-WashbasinNo1,576$1.5K
Tedious-AccordanceNo1,551$1.5K
Superb-InviteYes999$35
Poor-TavernNo490$473

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $963 at 96.0%SELL No — $104 at 96.0%SELL No — $67 at 96.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 09:12 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$10
Oct 21, 05:04 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$10
Oct 21, 07:44 AM ETNoSELL96.1%$10
Oct 21, 02:58 AM ETYesBUY2.7%$1
Oct 20, 02:29 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$67
Oct 20, 09:40 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$0
Oct 20, 09:40 AM ETNoSELL96.0%$104
Oct 20, 09:05 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$1
Oct 20, 09:05 AM ETNoSELL96.0%$963
Oct 20, 06:10 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$0

Related markets

More Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · 24H VOL $2.01M

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-agrees-to-limit-size-of-armed-forces-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027??

$127.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.