As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 8.0% in Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...? — $538.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 8.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since April 08, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 8.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 8.0% |
December 31 is favored at 8.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8¢ | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $42.4K | 7.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$538.3K has been traded on this event in total, $166 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 812 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital-Endoderm | Yes | 812 | $65 |
| Proper-Tectonics | No | 700 | $644 |
| Unwitting-Beanie | Yes | 458 | $37 |
| Wry-Elm | No | 330 | $304 |
| Heartfelt-Image | No | 309 | $284 |
| Jealous-Saffron | Yes | 250 | $20 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 244 | $20 |
| Joint-Washbasin | No | 135 | $124 |
| 0xfb9d38cac5c3b0936413b78f30664d3c224bd78e | Yes | 92 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 77 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.5% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.6% | $13 |
| Oct 20, 05:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $40 |
| Oct 20, 05:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $40 |
| Oct 20, 05:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $67 |
| Oct 20, 04:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $46 |
| Oct 20, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $51 |
| Oct 20, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $76 |
| Oct 19, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31?via=bro
$538.3K in total volume, with $166 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 8.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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