As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.6% in Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? — $1.26M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past month: -1.9 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 83.0% and 98.7%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 98.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.6% |
No is favored at 98.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.26M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.26M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.26M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Resolution source: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,326 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious-Plaster | Yes | 10,326 | $145 |
| Scarce-Passage | No | 5,523 | $5.4K |
| Smart-Average | No | 3,229 | $3.2K |
| Gracious-Gammaray | Yes | 3,216 | $45 |
| Proper-Tectonics | No | 2,855 | $2.8K |
| Scared-Cardboard | No | 1,082 | $1.1K |
| Tedious-Accordance | No | 1,036 | $1.0K |
| 0x7c8cd873… | No | 1,023 | $1.0K |
| 0xfa394a59… | No | 893 | $881 |
| Giving-Petticoat | No | 887 | $875 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $197 |
| Oct 21, 12:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 12:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $490 |
| Oct 21, 03:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $299 |
| Oct 21, 03:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $38 |
| Oct 20, 07:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $11 |
| Oct 20, 04:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 04:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $29 |
| Oct 20, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $58 |
| Oct 20, 01:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.6%. Next is Yes at 1.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027?via=bro
$1.26M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm.
No, priced at 98.6% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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