As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.0% in Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? — $74.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.9 pts; past month: +3.4 pts.
Since December 29, 2025, No has traded between 50.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 94.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.1% |
No is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.0% | -0.4 pts | $74.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.9% | +0.4 pts | $74.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$74.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,146 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proper-Tectonics | No | 7,146 | $6.7K |
| Unwitting-Beanie | Yes | 2,997 | $178 |
| Dreary-Flanker | Yes | 1,870 | $111 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 1,501 | $89 |
| Unknown-Integer | No | 843 | $793 |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 585 | $35 |
| Healthy-Baobab | Yes | 500 | $30 |
| 0xff6fd546… | Yes | 403 | $24 |
| Wry-Elm | No | 313 | $295 |
| Squeaky-Weather | No | 297 | $279 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 02:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $362 |
| Oct 21, 05:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.6% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.6% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 07:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $21 |
| Oct 19, 07:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $19 |
| Oct 19, 05:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.2% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 04:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.4% | $23 |
| Oct 19, 03:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.3% | $19 |
| Oct 19, 03:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.0%. Next is Yes at 5.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026?via=bro
$74.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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