As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 16.5% in Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...? — $2.66M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 16.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 16.5% and 46.0%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 16.5%.
December 31, 2027 is favored at 16.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 16¢ | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| June 30, 2027 | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $193 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.7% | -0.5 pts | $102.9K | 3.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 25¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.66M has been traded on this event in total, $420 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. … (condensed)
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 08:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 01:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.2% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 05:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 16.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025?via=bro
$2.66M in total volume, with $420 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 16.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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