As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 68.5% in U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...? — $12.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 68.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.5 pts; past week: -19.0 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, December 31 has traded between 46.5% and 86.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
December 31 is favored at 68.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 68¢ | 68.5% | -3.5 pts | $5.9K | 47.2% |
| October 31 | 34¢ | 34.0% | +2.0 pts | $6.6K | 52.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 68¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.6K has been traded on this event in total, $633 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. "U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity. An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named. “Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify. A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,215 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electric-Architect | Yes | 1,215 | $832 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 1,116 | $352 |
| Present-Lambkin | No | 260 | $82 |
| Heartfelt-Image | No | 200 | $63 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 186 | $128 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | No | 180 | $57 |
| Pointed-Timeline | No | 147 | $46 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 134 | $92 |
| Tough-Mask | Yes | 100 | $69 |
| Weird-Freedom | Yes | 99 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $91 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $103 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.9% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 68.5%. Next is October 31 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uptspt-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-byptptpt?via=bro
$12.6K in total volume, with $633 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.