Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 68.5% in U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...? — $12.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $633.
Leading outcome
December 31
68%
A 68.5% price implies roughly a 68-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.5 pts7D −19.0 pts
December 3168.5%
October 3134.0%
Bid
68¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 05, 2026: 46.5% – 86.0% · Opened at 46.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?
Category
Trump, crime, Mexico, cartel, Politics, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.6K
Volume (24h)
$633
Liquidity
$50.3K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 68.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 68.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.5 pts; past week: -19.0 pts.

Since October 05, 2026, December 31 has traded between 46.5% and 86.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 72.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202681.5%
Oct 15, 202683.5%
Oct 16, 202682.5%
Oct 18, 202681.5%
Oct 19, 202675.5%
Oct 20, 202677.0%
Oct 23, 202672.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 68.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3168¢68.5%-3.5 pts$5.9K47.2%
October 3134¢34.0%+2.0 pts$6.6K52.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 68¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.6K has been traded on this event in total, $633 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. "U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity. An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named. “Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify. A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,215 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Electric-ArchitectYes1,215$832
Capital-EndodermNo1,116$352
Present-LambkinNo260$82
Heartfelt-ImageNo200$63
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes186$128
Traumatic-BakeryNo180$57
Pointed-TimelineNo147$46
Belated-GlueYes134$92
Tough-MaskYes100$69
Weird-FreedomYes99$68

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $122 at 65.5%BUY No — $103 at 69.0%SELL No — $91 at 67.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesBUY34.0%$7
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesBUY33.0%$6
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesBUY33.0%$7
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETNoSELL67.0%$91
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesBUY33.0%$14
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETYesBUY33.0%$7
Oct 24, 10:07 AM ETNoBUY69.0%$103
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETYesSELL31.0%$16
Oct 24, 12:05 AM ETYesBUY70.0%$5
Oct 24, 12:03 AM ETYesSELL68.9%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 68.5%. Next is October 31 at 34.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uptspt-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...??

$12.6K in total volume, with $633 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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