As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 23.0% in US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by...? — $47.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 23.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -31.5 pts; past month: -18.0 pts.
Since June 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 18.5% and 75.5%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 23.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23.0% |
December 31 is favored at 23.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 23¢ | 23.0% | — | $60 | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$47.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 60 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Yes | 60 | $14 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 60 | $46 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 02:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 23.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-cuba-oil-sanction-relief-by-june-30?via=bro
$47.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 23.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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