As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.0% in US Announces Diesel Export ban by...? — $514.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.0%.
Since October 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 7.0% and 17.5%. It opened at 12.5% and last traded at 11.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 11.0% |
December 31 is favored at 11.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 11¢ | 11.0% | — | $12.8K | 2.5% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 2.2% | +0.1 pts | $279.7K | 54.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$514.1K has been traded on this event in total, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,340 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Competent-Veterinarian | Yes | 1,340 | $147 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 1,257 | $1.1K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1,051 | $116 |
| Experienced-Carpeting | No | 1,000 | $890 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 493 | $54 |
| Mellow-Settlement | No | 489 | $435 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 486 | $433 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 309 | $275 |
| 0x002316b5… | Yes | 173 | $19 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 167 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $748 |
| Oct 23, 07:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $2.0K |
| Oct 23, 05:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 10:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $70 |
| Oct 22, 10:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.4% | $125 |
| Oct 22, 10:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $320 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 12:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.0%. Next is October 31 at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-diesel-export-ban-byptptpt?via=bro
$514.1K in total volume, with $3.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 11.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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