Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.0% in US Announces Diesel Export ban by...? — $514.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $3.0K.
Leading outcome
December 31
11%
A 11.0% price implies roughly a 11-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
December 3111.0%
October 312.2%
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 7.0% – 17.5% · Opened at 12.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?
Category
gas, Trump, diesel, Politics, economics, gas price
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$514.1K
Volume (24h)
$3.0K
Liquidity
$50.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 11.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.0%.

Since October 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 7.0% and 17.5%. It opened at 12.5% and last traded at 11.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202611.5%
Oct 18, 202611.0%
Oct 19, 202611.0%
Oct 20, 202611.0%
Oct 22, 202611.0%
Oct 23, 202611.0%
Oct 24, 202611.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 11.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3111¢11.0%—$12.8K2.5%
October 312¢2.2%+0.1 pts$279.7K54.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$514.1K has been traded on this event in total, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,340 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Competent-VeterinarianYes1,340$147
Natural-VacationNo1,257$1.1K
Flamboyant-WarmingYes1,051$116
Experienced-CarpetingNo1,000$890
Required-HornYes493$54
Mellow-SettlementNo489$435
Peppery-CapitalNo486$433
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomNo309$275
0x002316b5…Yes173$19
Belated-GlueYes167$18

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $2.0K at 98.2%SELL No — $748 at 97.5%SELL No — $320 at 97.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:50 AM ETYesBUY2.4%$5
Oct 23, 10:25 PM ETNoSELL97.5%$748
Oct 23, 07:33 PM ETNoBUY98.2%$2.0K
Oct 23, 05:21 AM ETNoBUY98.1%$50
Oct 22, 10:46 PM ETNoSELL97.3%$70
Oct 22, 10:46 PM ETNoSELL97.4%$125
Oct 22, 10:46 PM ETNoSELL97.7%$320
Oct 22, 12:07 PM ETNoSELL97.8%$12
Oct 21, 12:42 PM ETYesSELL1.8%$4
Oct 21, 12:29 PM ETNoSELL88.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US Announces Diesel Export ban by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.0%. Next is October 31 at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-diesel-export-ban-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US Announces Diesel Export ban by...??

$514.1K in total volume, with $3.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does US Announces Diesel Export ban by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 11.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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