As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in US announces military base in Israel in 2026? — $1.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -1.1 pts; past month: -17.1 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 62.0% and 96.5%. It opened at 62.0% and last traded at 95.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.6% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.7% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 543 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilted-Airfield-Diaphragm | No | 543 | $519 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 265 | $12 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 203 | $9 |
| Homely-Front-Thought | Yes | 43 | $2 |
| Sizzling-Patience | Yes | 28 | $1 |
| Huge-Refuge | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Heartfelt-Success | No | 20 | $19 |
| Kosher-Unique | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Clear-Cut-Jailhouse | No | 13 | $12 |
| Repentant-Minor | No | 5 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 07:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.9% | $19 |
| Oct 21, 07:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.1% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 01:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.5% | $27 |
| Oct 15, 07:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $46 |
| Oct 15, 12:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.1% | $12 |
| Oct 15, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $59 |
| Oct 08, 02:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 05, 05:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-military-base-in-israel-in-2026-20260630144955258?via=bro
$1.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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