As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 62.0% in US bank failure by December 31, 2026? — $11.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts.
Since September 28, 2026, Yes has traded between 34.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 62.0% |
Yes is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62¢ | 62.0% | — | $11.6K | 100.0% |
| No | 38¢ | 38.0% | — | $11.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.6K has been traded on this event in total, $72 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 512 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 512 | $318 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 343 | $130 |
| Advanced-Mailer | No | 234 | $89 |
| 0x14a1783e… | Yes | 220 | $136 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 180 | $68 |
| Robust-Twins | Yes | 173 | $107 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 157 | $60 |
| Submissive-Lifestyle | Yes | 153 | $95 |
| Creamy-Geology | Yes | 100 | $62 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 100 | $38 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 60.0% | $43 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.6% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $42 |
| Oct 21, 10:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 10:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $86 |
| Oct 20, 05:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 10:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $98 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 62.0%. Next is No at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-2026-20260928?via=bro
$11.6K in total volume, with $72 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.