Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 62.0% in US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...? — $286.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.3K.
Leading outcome
December 31
62%
A 62.0% price implies roughly a 62-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.0 pts7D +20.5 pts30D +21.0 pts
December 3162.0%
November 3038.0%
Bid
42¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
40¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 24, 2026: 34.0% – 90.5% · Opened at 54.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
Category
Canada, Tariffs, Politics, Trade War, international affairs, US Canada Trade War
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$286.1K
Volume (24h)
$2.3K
Liquidity
$36.5K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 62.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 62.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +20.5 pts; past month: +21.0 pts.

Since August 24, 2026, December 31 has traded between 34.0% and 90.5%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 60.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202641.5%
Oct 18, 202641.5%
Oct 19, 202641.0%
Oct 20, 202639.0%
Oct 22, 202662.5%
Oct 23, 202666.0%
Oct 24, 202660.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 62.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3162¢62.0%-4.0 pts$43.7K15.3%
November 3038¢38.0%-1.0 pts$200.0%
October 316¢6.3%-5.5 pts$116.2K40.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 40¢ (bid 42¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$286.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms. Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,582 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Scholarly-MassYes7,582$4.7K
Whimsical-TerminalNo5,544$2.1K
Awesome-AvailabilityNo1,819$691
Square-TrustNo1,030$392
0xc602570a…Yes1,004$623
Weepy-AidNo930$353
Peppery-CapitalYes739$458
Faithful-TrekYes700$434
Tasty-Hatbox-GuiltNo623$237
Gleaming-HandlebarNo452$172

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $932 at 89.6%SELL No — $253 at 94.3%BUY No — $243 at 57.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:48 PM ETNoSELL93.1%$93
Oct 24, 01:48 PM ETYesBUY6.7%$3
Oct 24, 04:10 AM ETNoBUY93.2%$6
Oct 24, 04:08 AM ETYesBUY7.7%$2
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoSELL93.4%$23
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoSELL93.5%$1
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoSELL93.5%$42
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETYesBUY6.1%$1
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoSELL94.3%$253
Oct 23, 11:32 PM ETNoSELL94.2%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 62.0%. Next is November 30 at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-canada-diplomatic-agreement-to-lower-tariffs-by-august-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...??

$286.1K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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