As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 62.0% in US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...? — $286.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +20.5 pts; past month: +21.0 pts.
Since August 24, 2026, December 31 has traded between 34.0% and 90.5%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 60.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.0% |
December 31 is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 62¢ | 62.0% | -4.0 pts | $43.7K | 15.3% |
| November 30 | 38¢ | 38.0% | -1.0 pts | $20 | 0.0% |
| October 31 | 6¢ | 6.3% | -5.5 pts | $116.2K | 40.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 40¢ (bid 42¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$286.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms. Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,582 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scholarly-Mass | Yes | 7,582 | $4.7K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 5,544 | $2.1K |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 1,819 | $691 |
| Square-Trust | No | 1,030 | $392 |
| 0xc602570a… | Yes | 1,004 | $623 |
| Weepy-Aid | No | 930 | $353 |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 739 | $458 |
| Faithful-Trek | Yes | 700 | $434 |
| Tasty-Hatbox-Guilt | No | 623 | $237 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 452 | $172 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $93 |
| Oct 24, 01:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.7% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.7% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.4% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $253 |
| Oct 23, 11:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 62.0%. Next is November 30 at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-canada-diplomatic-agreement-to-lower-tariffs-by-august-31?via=bro
$286.1K in total volume, with $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.