Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.3% in US charges Hormuz fees by...? — $1.00M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $9.1K.
Leading outcome
December 31
3%
A 3.3% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.2 pts7D −0.8 pts30D −1.4 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since July 13, 2026: 3.4% – 35.0% · Opened at 35.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
Category
Iran, toll, US-Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Oil
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.00M
Volume (24h)
$9.1K
Liquidity
$65.0K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 3.3%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.3%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.2 pts; past week: -0.8 pts; past month: -1.4 pts.

Since July 13, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.4% and 35.0%. It opened at 35.0% and last traded at 4.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20264.0%
Oct 16, 20263.9%
Oct 18, 20264.2%
Oct 19, 20264.2%
Oct 20, 20264.1%
Oct 22, 20264.4%
Oct 23, 20264.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 3.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 313¢3.3%-1.2 pts$136.3K13.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.00M has been traded on this event in total, $9.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,432 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Eminent-AccordionYes12,432$410
Detailed-LipYes8,616$284
Immense-BusinessmanNo8,515$8.2K
Determined-PercentageNo6,515$6.3K
Calm-DuskNo3,379$3.3K
Wobbly-ChainNo2,378$2.3K
Essential-DiaristYes2,250$74
Careful-BunchNo1,868$1.8K
Serpentine-IllusionNo1,620$1.6K
Straight-HuntingYes1,601$53

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $978 at 96.7%SELL No — $742 at 96.0%SELL Yes — $253 at 4.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:42 PM ETNoSELL97.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:42 PM ETYesSELL2.3%$15
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoSELL97.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoSELL94.9%$29
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETYesSELL2.9%$19
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$253
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoBUY97.0%$194
Oct 24, 02:41 PM ETNoBUY97.0%$194

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US charges Hormuz fees by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US charges Hormuz fees by...??

$1.00M in total volume, with $9.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US charges Hormuz fees by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US charges Hormuz fees by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 3.3% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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