As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.3% in US charges Hormuz fees by...? — $1.00M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.2 pts; past week: -0.8 pts; past month: -1.4 pts.
Since July 13, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.4% and 35.0%. It opened at 35.0% and last traded at 4.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.5% |
December 31 is favored at 3.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.3% | -1.2 pts | $136.3K | 13.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.00M has been traded on this event in total, $9.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,432 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eminent-Accordion | Yes | 12,432 | $410 |
| Detailed-Lip | Yes | 8,616 | $284 |
| Immense-Businessman | No | 8,515 | $8.2K |
| Determined-Percentage | No | 6,515 | $6.3K |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 3,379 | $3.3K |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 2,378 | $2.3K |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 2,250 | $74 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 1,868 | $1.8K |
| Serpentine-Illusion | No | 1,620 | $1.6K |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 1,601 | $53 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.9% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.9% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $253 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $194 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $194 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232?via=bro
$1.00M in total volume, with $9.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.3% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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