As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.4% in US defaults on debt by 2027? — $19.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 92.0% and 99.1%. It opened at 92.0% and last traded at 98.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 99.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 99.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.4% |
No is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.4% | -0.8 pts | $19.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.8 pts | $19.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$19.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,000 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snoopy-Pitching | No | 1,000 | $984 |
| Humiliating-Gynaecology | Yes | 953 | $16 |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 796 | $783 |
| Vengeful-Glockenspiel | Yes | 651 | $11 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 571 | $9 |
| Snoopy-Cornflakes | Yes | 400 | $7 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 301 | $5 |
| Scientific-Noun | No | 208 | $205 |
| Lazy-Tattler | No | 204 | $201 |
| Kind-Maniac | No | 200 | $197 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.6% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 10:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 09:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 04:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $10 |
| Oct 11, 10:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $22 |
| Oct 07, 06:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $99 |
| Oct 07, 06:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $40 |
| Oct 07, 12:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $40 |
| Oct 07, 12:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.4%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027?via=bro
$19.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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