Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 19.5% in U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...? — $461.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $5.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026
20%
A 19.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +7.0 pts30D −4.5 pts
Bid
14¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
11¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 29, 2026: 10.0% – 64.5% · Opened at 31.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
Category
Middle East, Syria, Politics, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$461.8K
Volume (24h)
$5
Liquidity
$154
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026 — 19.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 19.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +7.0 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.

Since May 29, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 10.0% and 64.5%. It opened at 31.0% and last traded at 19.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202641.0%
Oct 18, 202612.0%
Oct 19, 202624.0%
Oct 20, 202618.0%
Oct 22, 202618.5%
Oct 23, 202618.5%
Oct 24, 202619.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2026 is favored at 19.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202620¢19.5%+1.0 pts$19.3K4.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$461.8K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 705 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Daring-PresidentYes705$137
Miserly-AgeYes437$85
Smoggy-SunglassesNo398$320
Minor-RoseNo346$278
Whimsical-SellerNo299$241
Purple-FruitYes209$41
Belated-GlueYes191$37
Unfit-HardboardNo156$126
Joyous-CatalystNo150$121
NoSteinNoGateNo111$90

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $522 at 87.1%BUY No — $124 at 83.0%SELL No — $77 at 77.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:49 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$1
Oct 22, 11:47 AM ETNoBUY83.0%$124
Oct 22, 10:47 AM ETNoSELL77.0%$77
Oct 21, 07:55 PM ETNoSELL37.0%$6
Oct 21, 04:25 PM ETNoSELL60.0%$3
Oct 21, 04:25 PM ETNoSELL50.0%$2
Oct 21, 02:46 PM ETNoSELL50.0%$2
Oct 21, 08:16 AM ETNoSELL65.0%$3
Oct 21, 12:47 AM ETNoSELL79.1%$40
Oct 21, 12:47 AM ETYesBUY22.0%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-embassy-in-damaskus-reopend-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...??

$461.8K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2026, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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