As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 90.5% in U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? — $205.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 90.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, No has traded between 41.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 93.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
No is favored at 90.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 90.5% | — | $205.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $205.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$205.3K has been traded on this event in total, $333 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 13,812 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inferior-Plough-Acrylic | No | 13,812 | $12.5K |
| Jumpy-Robotics-Spectacle | Yes | 3,991 | $379 |
| Light-Mayonnaise | Yes | 3,409 | $324 |
| 0x52eb1e57… | Yes | 2,962 | $281 |
| Forsaken-Outhouse | No | 2,500 | $2.3K |
| Better-Smith | Yes | 2,199 | $209 |
| Smoggy-Antique | No | 2,123 | $1.9K |
| Happy-Wife | Yes | 1,665 | $158 |
| Rotten-Gasoline | Yes | 1,664 | $158 |
| Strange-Icicle | No | 1,482 | $1.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.2% | $294 |
| Oct 22, 05:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.4% | $100 |
| Oct 22, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $207 |
| Oct 21, 03:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $28 |
| Oct 18, 12:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $23 |
| Oct 18, 11:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $19 |
| Oct 17, 12:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $107 |
| Oct 16, 12:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $426 |
| Oct 15, 10:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 90.5%. Next is Yes at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027?via=bro
$205.3K in total volume, with $333 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 90.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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