As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.5% in U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...? — $120.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.5% and 46.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 3.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.5% |
December 31 is favored at 3.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $26.7K | 22.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$120.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 576 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 576 | $556 |
| Amusing-Good | No | 420 | $405 |
| Impassioned-Eel-Junker | Yes | 354 | $13 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 226 | $8 |
| Deadly-Cofactor | Yes | 221 | $8 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 170 | $6 |
| Both-Shoreline | No | 117 | $113 |
| Amazing-Pad | Yes | 105 | $4 |
| Honorable-Necessity | No | 53 | $51 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 52 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $82 |
| Oct 21, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 03:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 04:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 04:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.5% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 04:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 04:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 04:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.6% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-beirut-embassy-by-june-30?via=bro
$120.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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