As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 17.0% in US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...? — $94.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 17.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.0% and 70.0%. It opened at 13.0% and last traded at 17.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 17.5% |
December 31 is favored at 17.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17¢ | 17.0% | -0.5 pts | $40.5K | 42.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$94.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 78 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fearful-Congress | No | 78 | $65 |
| Personal-Artist-Justification | No | 44 | $37 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 44 | $7 |
| Electric-Guarantee | Yes | 43 | $7 |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 41 | $34 |
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 39 | $7 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 37 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 30 | $5 |
| Puzzling-Haversack | No | 15 | $12 |
| Limited-Hub | No | 4 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 11:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 01:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $7 |
| Sep 18, 09:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.4% | $4 |
| Sep 18, 09:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.6% | $5 |
| Sep 06, 07:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $3 |
| Sep 06, 07:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.8% | $38 |
| Sep 06, 03:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $5 |
| Aug 31, 11:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.3% | $5 |
| Aug 31, 10:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $4 |
| Aug 31, 05:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-federally-charges-cuba-leader-miguel-diaz-canel?via=bro
$94.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 17.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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