Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 30.5% in US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...? — $18.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.4K.
Leading outcome
March 31
30%
A 30.5% price implies roughly a 30-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +7.0 pts7D +8.0 pts
March 3130.5%
December 3119.5%
Bid
30¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 15, 2026: 15.5% – 30.5% · Opened at 15.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
Category
doj, Politics, Ilhan Omar, US Politics
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$18.8K
Volume (24h)
$2.4K
Liquidity
$60.6K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
March 31 — 30.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 30.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.0 pts; past week: +8.0 pts.

Since October 15, 2026, March 31 has traded between 15.5% and 30.5%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 30.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202616.5%
Oct 18, 202628.5%
Oct 19, 202628.5%
Oct 20, 202624.5%
Oct 22, 202623.5%
Oct 23, 202623.5%
Oct 24, 202630.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31 is favored at 30.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 3130¢30.5%+7.0 pts$10.5K56.0%
December 3120¢19.5%-3.0 pts$8.3K44.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$18.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,765 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cheerful-EphemeraNo1,765$1.2K
Medical-WrappingYes556$169
Hidden-BafflementYes403$123
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomYes395$120
Interesting-EliteNo381$265
Belated-GlueYes208$63
Attentive-CrewmanYes171$52
Altruistic-WellbeingYes160$49
Golden-PanpipeYes115$35
Anchored-LeprosyYes113$34

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $562 at 78.0%SELL No — $546 at 76.0%BUY No — $174 at 83.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:39 PM ETYesSELL30.0%$11
Oct 24, 04:38 PM ETYesSELL30.0%$15
Oct 24, 02:33 AM ETNoSELL69.0%$9
Oct 23, 11:49 PM ETNoBUY70.0%$21
Oct 23, 10:45 PM ETYesBUY19.0%$3
Oct 23, 10:28 PM ETNoSELL70.0%$21
Oct 23, 09:35 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$4
Oct 23, 09:34 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$4
Oct 23, 09:34 PM ETNoSELL70.5%$18
Oct 23, 09:11 PM ETYesBUY31.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 30.5%. Next is December 31 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-files-ilhan-omar-denaturalization-case-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...??

$18.8K in total volume, with $2.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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