As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 30.5% in US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...? — $18.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.0 pts; past week: +8.0 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, March 31 has traded between 15.5% and 30.5%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 30.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.5% |
March 31 is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 30¢ | 30.5% | +7.0 pts | $10.5K | 56.0% |
| December 31 | 20¢ | 19.5% | -3.0 pts | $8.3K | 44.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.8K has been traded on this event in total, $2.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,765 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 1,765 | $1.2K |
| Medical-Wrapping | Yes | 556 | $169 |
| Hidden-Bafflement | Yes | 403 | $123 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 395 | $120 |
| Interesting-Elite | No | 381 | $265 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 208 | $63 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 171 | $52 |
| Altruistic-Wellbeing | Yes | 160 | $49 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 115 | $35 |
| Anchored-Leprosy | Yes | 113 | $34 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 11:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 10:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 09:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 09:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.5% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 09:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 30.5%. Next is December 31 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-files-ilhan-omar-denaturalization-case-byptptpt?via=bro
$18.8K in total volume, with $2.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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