As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? — $186.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 43.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 63.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | — | $186.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $186.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$186.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,591 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly-Virtue | No | 1,591 | $1.5K |
| Celebrated-Sousaphone | Yes | 815 | $37 |
| Tremendous-Test | Yes | 551 | $25 |
| Present-Tax | Yes | 537 | $24 |
| Whirlwind-Meantime | Yes | 503 | $23 |
| Homely-Amenity | No | 500 | $478 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 330 | $15 |
| Dear-Hypothesis | Yes | 307 | $14 |
| Internal-Enforcement | No | 289 | $276 |
| Naive-Mountain | No | 278 | $265 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $11 |
| Oct 13, 04:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $51 |
| Oct 12, 03:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 01:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $4 |
| Oct 03, 09:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 03, 03:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $5 |
| Oct 01, 02:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $9 |
| Sep 25, 05:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $10 |
| Sep 22, 09:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027?via=bro
$186.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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