As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 97.0% in US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by...? — $7.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 97.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.1 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 97.0% and 98.0%. It opened at 98.0% and last traded at 97.0%.
December 31 is favored at 97.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 97¢ | 97.0% | -1.1 pts | $2.6K | 34.2% |
| October 31 | 71¢ | 71.0% | -19.5 pts | $5.0K | 65.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.6K has been traded on this event in total, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 665 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loathsome-Monopoly | Yes | 665 | $645 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 246 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 213 | $6 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 130 | $4 |
| Barren-Laughter | Yes | 88 | $86 |
| Weird-Ephemeris-Exception | Yes | 50 | $48 |
| Known-Use | No | 49 | $1 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | No | 30 | $1 |
| Creamy-Geology | No | 27 | $1 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 27 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.5% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 26.2% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 04:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.8% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.5% | $86 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 30.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 97.0%. Next is October 31 at 71.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-gov-confirms-php2shell-exploited-byptptpt?via=bro
$7.6K in total volume, with $3.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog.
December 31, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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