As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 85.5% in US imports Russian diesel by...? — $526.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts.
Since October 19, 2026, December 31 has traded between 32.0% and 86.0%. It opened at 44.5% and last traded at 86.0%.
December 31 is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 86¢ | 85.5% | -0.5 pts | $45.5K | 8.6% |
| November 30 | 82¢ | 82.0% | +2.0 pts | $154.3K | 29.3% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.6% | -0.9 pts | $327.3K | 62.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 85¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$526.9K has been traded on this event in total, $19.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,037 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glistening-Contributor | No | 5,037 | $730 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 3,335 | $484 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 2,888 | $2.5K |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 1,495 | $217 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 1,454 | $211 |
| Honorable-Rice-Dawn | Yes | 1,200 | $1.0K |
| Ideal-Arch | Yes | 1,115 | $954 |
| Exhausted-String | Yes | 1,044 | $893 |
| Cheery-Science | No | 1,039 | $151 |
| Tiny-Equality | No | 1,005 | $146 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.3% | $279 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $291 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 02:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 85.5%. Next is November 30 at 82.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-imports-russian-diesel-by-october-31?via=bro
$526.9K in total volume, with $19.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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