As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.5% in US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31? — $2.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.9 pts; past week: -4.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, No has traded between 83.0% and 98.9%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 93.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.5% |
No is favored at 93.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 93.5% | +1.9 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.5% | -1.9 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $56 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 276 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 276 | $258 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 260 | $17 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 253 | $16 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 146 | $9 |
| Spanish-Priority | No | 137 | $128 |
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | No | 111 | $104 |
| Mundane-Viola | No | 100 | $94 |
| Ignorant-Vintner | No | 56 | $52 |
| Quick-Epic | No | 55 | $52 |
| 0xccf115d4… | Yes | 55 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.4% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $36 |
| Oct 22, 08:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 05:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 02:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 02:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $30 |
| Oct 20, 02:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $105 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.5%. Next is Yes at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-october-31?via=bro
$2.7K in total volume, with $56 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 93.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.