Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.5% in US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31? — $2.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $56.
Leading outcome
No
94%
A 93.5% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.9 pts7D −4.0 pts
No93.5%
Yes6.5%
Bid
2¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
8¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 83.0% – 98.9% · Opened at 83.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
Category
Iran, China, Trump, Economy, Politics, Trump-Xi, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.7K
Volume (24h)
$56
Liquidity
$346
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 93.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.9 pts; past week: -4.0 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, No has traded between 83.0% and 98.9%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 93.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202689.5%
Oct 18, 202692.5%
Oct 19, 202693.8%
Oct 20, 202698.5%
Oct 22, 202698.9%
Oct 23, 202691.7%
Oct 24, 202693.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 93.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No94¢93.5%+1.9 pts$2.7K100.0%
Yes6¢6.5%-1.9 pts$2.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $56 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 276 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Circular-Sandpaper-LarderNo276$258
Belated-GlueYes260$17
Straight-WrinkleYes253$16
Essential-DiaristYes146$9
Spanish-PriorityNo137$128
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo111$104
Mundane-ViolaNo100$94
Ignorant-VintnerNo56$52
Quick-EpicNo55$52
0xccf115d4…Yes55$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $121 at 86.0%BUY No — $105 at 98.0%BUY No — $50 at 89.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETNoBUY89.4%$50
Oct 23, 05:33 PM ETYesBUY2.8%$1
Oct 22, 12:14 PM ETNoBUY99.6%$36
Oct 22, 08:56 AM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 21, 02:17 AM ETYesBUY1.8%$1
Oct 20, 09:56 AM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 20, 05:36 AM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 20, 02:35 AM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 20, 02:35 AM ETNoBUY98.9%$30
Oct 20, 02:35 AM ETNoBUY98.0%$105

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.5%. Next is Yes at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-october-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31??

$2.7K in total volume, with $56 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 93.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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