As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 45.5% in US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...? — $56.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 45.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +18.0 pts; past week: +12.0 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.
Since July 11, 2026, December 31 has traded between 27.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 45.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.5% |
December 31 is favored at 45.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 46¢ | 45.5% | +18.0 pts | $23.1K | 40.8% |
| October 31 | 15¢ | 15.0% | -8.5 pts | $19.1K | 33.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$56.6K has been traded on this event in total, $448 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,033 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 1,033 | $563 |
| Whimsical-Seller | Yes | 847 | $385 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | Yes | 753 | $343 |
| Present-Barium | No | 618 | $337 |
| Unnatural-Reputation | No | 575 | $313 |
| Daring-President | Yes | 478 | $218 |
| Gifted-Luck-Sort | Yes | 293 | $133 |
| Evil-Row | No | 222 | $121 |
| Different-Windshield | No | 202 | $110 |
| Chubby-Prior | Yes | 179 | $82 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.7% | $181 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.7% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 45.5%. Next is October 31 at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784?via=bro
$56.6K in total volume, with $448 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/.
December 31, priced at 45.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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