As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in US military draft authorized in 2026? — $544.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.4 pts; past month: -0.9 pts.
Since March 13, 2026, No has traded between 86.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 89.0% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.5% | — | $544.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $544.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$544.9K has been traded on this event in total, $159 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20,665 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immense-Businessman | No | 20,665 | $19.9K |
| Winding-Daylight | No | 10,065 | $9.7K |
| 0x6bd35615… | Yes | 10,014 | $350 |
| Slight-Vineyard | No | 6,427 | $6.2K |
| Several-Model | Yes | 4,850 | $170 |
| Filthy-Hyena | Yes | 4,113 | $144 |
| Giving-Oven | Yes | 3,975 | $139 |
| Caring-Eclipse | No | 3,364 | $3.2K |
| Flamboyant-Boogeyman | Yes | 3,000 | $105 |
| Harmful-Wrench | No | 2,936 | $2.8K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.5% | $155 |
| Oct 18, 09:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 08:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $128 |
| Oct 16, 03:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 08:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.6% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 04:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $5.4K |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026?via=bro
$544.9K in total volume, with $159 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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