As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 4.8% in U.S. nuclear test by...? — $810.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 4.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since April 01, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 3.7% and 22.5%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 4.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.8% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 4.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 4.8% | — | $87.2K | 10.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$810.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,535 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress | No | 2,535 | $2.4K |
| Calculating-Skirt | Yes | 1,000 | $48 |
| Whopping-Mosquito | No | 800 | $762 |
| Limp-Crystal | Yes | 750 | $36 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 400 | $19 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 300 | $14 |
| Vibrant-Motorcycle | Yes | 240 | $11 |
| Key-Score | Yes | 231 | $11 |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 225 | $215 |
| Downright-Website | No | 170 | $162 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.2% | $42 |
| Oct 21, 04:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.8% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 04:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $31 |
| Oct 21, 04:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $106 |
| Oct 20, 07:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.9% | $33 |
| Oct 20, 03:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $18 |
| Oct 20, 03:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $32 |
| Oct 20, 03:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $33 |
| Oct 20, 03:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $33 |
| Oct 19, 07:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $295 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-nuclear-test-by?via=bro
$810.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 4.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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