As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.4% in US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — $29.59M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.3 pts; past month: -2.1 pts.
Since April 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.1% and 38.0%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 3.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.5% |
December 31 is favored at 3.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $2.47M | 8.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.59M has been traded on this event in total, $687 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 77,772 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 77,772 | $2.6K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 64,339 | $62.2K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 45,963 | $44.4K |
| Substantial-Coupon | Yes | 40,471 | $1.4K |
| Vapid-Subprime | No | 37,897 | $36.6K |
| Minty-Vane | No | 32,349 | $31.2K |
| Intelligent-Hip | Yes | 30,000 | $1.0K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 29,249 | $994 |
| Free-Gnat | No | 22,741 | $22.0K |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | 16,081 | $15.5K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 12:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.5% | $96 |
| Oct 24, 08:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 08:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $118 |
| Oct 23, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 12:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $78 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.6% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 11:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.6% | $50 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by?via=bro
$29.59M in total volume, with $687 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.