Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.4% in US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? — $29.59M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $687.
Leading outcome
December 31
3%
A 3.4% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.3 pts30D −2.1 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
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Range since April 18, 2026: 3.1% – 38.0% · Opened at 38.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Category
Politics, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Trump, Negotiation Topics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$29.59M
Volume (24h)
$687
Liquidity
$110.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 3.4%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.4%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.3 pts; past month: -2.1 pts.

Since April 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.1% and 38.0%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 3.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 20263.1%
Oct 18, 20263.8%
Oct 19, 20263.2%
Oct 20, 20263.5%
Oct 22, 20263.5%
Oct 23, 20263.4%
Oct 24, 20263.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 3.4%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 313¢3.4%—$2.47M8.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$29.59M has been traded on this event in total, $687 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 77,772 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Whimsical-TerminalYes77,772$2.6K
Illustrious-SpectaclesNo64,339$62.2K
Cheerful-EphemeraNo45,963$44.4K
Substantial-CouponYes40,471$1.4K
Vapid-SubprimeNo37,897$36.6K
Minty-VaneNo32,349$31.2K
Intelligent-HipYes30,000$1.0K
Near-FamiliarYes29,249$994
Free-GnatNo22,741$22.0K
Extra-Large-BegoniaNo16,081$15.5K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.5K at 96.2%SELL No — $577 at 96.1%BUY No — $482 at 96.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:06 PM ETYesSELL3.2%$0
Oct 24, 12:41 PM ETYesBUY3.5%$16
Oct 24, 12:25 PM ETNoSELL96.5%$96
Oct 24, 08:34 AM ETNoSELL96.4%$9
Oct 23, 08:16 PM ETNoSELL96.4%$118
Oct 23, 05:05 PM ETYesSELL3.2%$2
Oct 23, 12:58 PM ETNoSELL96.4%$2
Oct 23, 01:41 AM ETNoBUY96.9%$78
Oct 23, 01:41 AM ETNoBUY96.6%$10
Oct 22, 11:14 AM ETYesBUY3.6%$50

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...??

$29.59M in total volume, with $687 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 3.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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