Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? — $7.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
96%
A 96.5% price implies roughly a 96-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −1.0 pts
No96.5%
Yes3.5%
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 06, 2026: 90.5% – 96.0% · Opened at 93.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?
Category
Plague, Russia, Politics, Pandemics, Travel Ban, Immigration
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$7.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$11.5K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 96.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts.

Since October 06, 2026, No has traded between 90.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 93.0% and last traded at 96.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202693.0%
Oct 17, 202695.5%
Oct 18, 202695.5%
Oct 19, 202695.5%
Oct 20, 202695.5%
Oct 22, 202696.0%
Oct 23, 202696.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 96.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No96¢96.5%+0.5 pts$7.8K100.0%
Yes4¢3.5%-0.5 pts$7.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government issues a measure banning entry into the United States by Russian nationals or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, on plague-related grounds between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying measure is a proclamation, executive order, rule, or equivalent formal action that prohibits or suspends entry into US territory by Russian citizens or nationals, or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, whatever lookback period the measure uses. Russian nationality or physical presence in Russia or a specified region within Russia must be an express criterion determining who is subject to the entry prohibition. A measure that bars entry of Russian nationals as a class or travelers with such physical presence qualifies even if it carries exceptions or applies only to certain visa categories. The measure, or the official announcement issuing it, must cite plague, Yersinia pestis, or the suspected plague incident reported from Irkutsk Oblast, Russia in October 2026 as a basis for the entry prohibition. Plague need not be the sole basis, but a passing reference in background material is insufficient. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 916 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Magnificent-AcademyYes916$32
Mellow-SettlementNo680$656
Slippery-Chair-CommonsenseNo500$482
Cheerful-EphemeraNo461$445
Mundane-SnugNo370$357
Darling-TopNo349$337
Belated-GlueYes323$11
Favorable-MotionYes317$11
Grand-SpleenYes300$11
Embellished-DoorbellYes300$11

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $438 at 95.0%BUY No — $290 at 93.0%BUY No — $278 at 93.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 04:30 PM ETNoBUY97.0%$5
Oct 21, 07:43 PM ETYesSELL3.0%$3
Oct 19, 01:58 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$2
Oct 19, 10:01 AM ETNoBUY96.0%$20
Oct 19, 09:30 AM ETYesBUY5.5%$4
Oct 19, 02:10 AM ETYesSELL3.0%$0
Oct 19, 02:09 AM ETYesSELL4.0%$1
Oct 17, 08:32 AM ETNoSELL93.0%$1
Oct 17, 08:27 AM ETYesSELL4.2%$6
Oct 17, 08:27 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$438

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-plague-travel-ban-on-russia-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026??

$7.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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