As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? — $7.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -1.0 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, No has traded between 90.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 93.0% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.5% | +0.5 pts | $7.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government issues a measure banning entry into the United States by Russian nationals or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, on plague-related grounds between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying measure is a proclamation, executive order, rule, or equivalent formal action that prohibits or suspends entry into US territory by Russian citizens or nationals, or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, whatever lookback period the measure uses. Russian nationality or physical presence in Russia or a specified region within Russia must be an express criterion determining who is subject to the entry prohibition. A measure that bars entry of Russian nationals as a class or travelers with such physical presence qualifies even if it carries exceptions or applies only to certain visa categories. The measure, or the official announcement issuing it, must cite plague, Yersinia pestis, or the suspected plague incident reported from Irkutsk Oblast, Russia in October 2026 as a basis for the entry prohibition. Plague need not be the sole basis, but a passing reference in background material is insufficient. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 916 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magnificent-Academy | Yes | 916 | $32 |
| Mellow-Settlement | No | 680 | $656 |
| Slippery-Chair-Commonsense | No | 500 | $482 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 461 | $445 |
| Mundane-Snug | No | 370 | $357 |
| Darling-Top | No | 349 | $337 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 323 | $11 |
| Favorable-Motion | Yes | 317 | $11 |
| Grand-Spleen | Yes | 300 | $11 |
| Embellished-Doorbell | Yes | 300 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 04:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 01:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 10:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $20 |
| Oct 19, 09:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 02:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $6 |
| Oct 17, 08:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $438 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-plague-travel-ban-on-russia-in-2026?via=bro
$7.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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