As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 91.5% in US recession by end of 2026? — $2.34M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 91.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since September 29, 2025, No has traded between 53.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 91.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.5% |
No is favored at 91.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 92¢ | 91.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.34M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 8¢ | 8.5% | +1.0 pts | $2.34M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.34M has been traded on this event in total, $2.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 404,296 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa0f21e6d… | Yes | 404,296 | $34.4K |
| Alive-Stuff | Yes | 69,287 | $5.9K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 40,425 | $37.0K |
| Tricky-Razor | No | 25,901 | $23.7K |
| Nutty-Musician | No | 24,432 | $22.4K |
| Straight-Scout | No | 24,057 | $22.0K |
| Burdensome-Disarmament | No | 23,755 | $21.7K |
| x26 | No | 22,000 | $20.1K |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 21,435 | $19.6K |
| Gregarious-Return | No | 20,774 | $19.0K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $92 |
| Oct 24, 12:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 09:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 08:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $460 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 03:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $25 |
| Oct 23, 10:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $1.5K |
| Oct 23, 09:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 91.5%. Next is Yes at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026?via=bro
$2.34M in total volume, with $2.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
No, priced at 91.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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