As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 64.5% in US recession by end of 2027? — $11.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 64.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since August 07, 2026, No has traded between 51.5% and 77.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 65.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.0% |
No is favored at 64.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 64¢ | 64.5% | -0.5 pts | $11.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 36¢ | 35.5% | +0.5 pts | $11.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2027 is released. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,907 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Determined-Gear | Yes | 2,907 | $1.0K |
| Swift-Lightning | No | 2,114 | $1.4K |
| Shimmering-Reindeer | No | 1,500 | $967 |
| Lumbering-Ore | Yes | 767 | $272 |
| Gregarious-Return | No | 480 | $310 |
| Testy-Operator | No | 400 | $258 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia | Yes | 350 | $124 |
| Bronze-Kickoff | Yes | 230 | $82 |
| Zigzag-Freighter | Yes | 200 | $71 |
| Content-Downgrade | No | 200 | $129 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 10:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $64 |
| Oct 21, 07:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 34.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.5% | $17 |
| Oct 21, 07:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $26 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 64.5%. Next is Yes at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760?via=bro
$11.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
No, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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