As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.4% in US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? — $643.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since January 05, 2026, No has traded between 57.0% and 97.2%. It opened at 87.0% and last traded at 96.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.4% |
No is favored at 96.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.4% | — | $643.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $643.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$643.6K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24,645 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Posh-Chem | Yes | 24,645 | $887 |
| Bleak-Full | No | 24,062 | $23.2K |
| Wooden-Prescription | No | 14,076 | $13.6K |
| Idolized-Pigeon | Yes | 11,544 | $416 |
| New-Anarchy | Yes | 11,000 | $396 |
| Excellent-Traveler | Yes | 10,534 | $379 |
| Afraid-Child | Yes | 6,704 | $241 |
| Bulky-Item | Yes | 6,425 | $231 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 6,099 | $5.9K |
| Homely-Amenity | No | 6,000 | $5.8K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 11:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 03:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 01:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $38 |
| Oct 22, 10:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 10:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 06:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.4%. Next is Yes at 3.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026?via=bro
$643.6K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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