As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.8% in U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? — $77.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 52.5% and 96.9%. It opened at 81.0% and last traded at 94.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.1% |
No is favored at 94.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.8% | +0.7 pts | $77.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.2% | -0.7 pts | $77.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$77.7K has been traded on this event in total, $37 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,684 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent-Sausage | Yes | 8,684 | $452 |
| Scared-Cardboard | No | 4,685 | $4.4K |
| United-Field | No | 3,949 | $3.7K |
| Heartfelt-Image | Yes | 1,674 | $87 |
| Foolish-Rainmaker-Self | No | 1,045 | $991 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 459 | $435 |
| 0xc7e88a70… | Yes | 222 | $12 |
| Tempting-Component | Yes | 200 | $10 |
| Scented-Patent | Yes | 188 | $10 |
| Annual-Chard | No | 157 | $149 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.2% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.8% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.8% | $50 |
| Oct 20, 09:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $12 |
| Oct 17, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $5 |
| Oct 16, 03:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 10:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $46 |
| Oct 16, 10:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $34 |
| Oct 05, 01:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.8%. Next is Yes at 5.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027?via=bro
$77.7K in total volume, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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