As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.8% in US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? — $192.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, No has traded between 54.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 94.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 91.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.8% |
No is favored at 94.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.8% | — | $192.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.2% | — | $192.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$192.3K has been traded on this event in total, $25 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,148 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent-Sausage | Yes | 8,148 | $428 |
| Harmful-Wrench | No | 7,438 | $7.0K |
| Imbafer | Yes | 6,361 | $334 |
| Vigilant-Railing | No | 6,150 | $5.8K |
| Trusty-Pantyhose | No | 1,200 | $1.1K |
| Joint-Washbasin | No | 1,000 | $948 |
| Unwelcome-Opponent | No | 900 | $853 |
| Cuddly-Folder | Yes | 889 | $47 |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 816 | $43 |
| Honorable-Creativity | No | 728 | $690 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 06:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.5% | $90 |
| Oct 21, 04:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.9% | $42 |
| Oct 20, 02:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.7% | $109 |
| Oct 20, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.6% | $23 |
| Oct 20, 06:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $5 |
| Oct 10, 05:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.8% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.8%. Next is Yes at 5.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukraine-before-2027?via=bro
$192.3K in total volume, with $25 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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