Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US strike on Mexico by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.7% in US strike on Mexico by...? — $3.50M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $129.
Leading outcome
December 31
4%
A 3.7% price implies roughly a 4-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.1 pts7D −0.2 pts30D −4.8 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since January 04, 2026: 3.4% – 39.0% · Opened at 13.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US strike on Mexico by...?
Category
Mexico Cartel War, mencho, Trump, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Politics, Venezuela
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.50M
Volume (24h)
$129
Liquidity
$15.9K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 3.7%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -4.8 pts.

Since January 04, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.4% and 39.0%. It opened at 13.5% and last traded at 3.7%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 20263.5%
Oct 15, 20263.4%
Oct 16, 20263.6%
Oct 18, 20264.1%
Oct 19, 20264.0%
Oct 20, 20264.0%
Oct 24, 20263.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 3.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 314¢3.7%+0.1 pts$770.3K22.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.50M has been traded on this event in total, $129 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 28,579 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Odd-OkraNo28,579$27.5K
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistNo21,765$21.0K
Determined-PercentageNo10,784$10.4K
Nimble-PitNo9,189$8.8K
Husky-PepperoniYes8,911$330
Live-UnderwritingYes8,476$314
Worse-ScenarioYes6,082$225
Occasional-TiltYes5,756$213
Bleak-FullNo5,680$5.5K
Awesome-CombinationYes5,047$187

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.6K at 96.2%SELL No — $395 at 95.8%SELL No — $287 at 95.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:39 AM ETYesBUY4.2%$2
Oct 24, 07:33 AM ETYesBUY4.2%$2
Oct 24, 01:47 AM ETYesBUY4.1%$2
Oct 23, 10:32 AM ETYesSELL3.2%$1
Oct 23, 08:52 AM ETNoSELL95.8%$395
Oct 23, 12:12 AM ETYesBUY3.5%$1
Oct 22, 12:45 AM ETYesSELL3.1%$46
Oct 21, 03:13 AM ETYesBUY4.3%$0
Oct 21, 01:00 AM ETNoBUY96.7%$2
Oct 20, 10:43 PM ETNoBUY96.4%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US strike on Mexico by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US strike on Mexico by...??

$3.50M in total volume, with $129 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US strike on Mexico by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US strike on Mexico by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 3.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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