As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.7% in US strike on Mexico by...? — $3.50M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -4.8 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.4% and 39.0%. It opened at 13.5% and last traded at 3.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.7% |
December 31 is favored at 3.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 3.7% | +0.1 pts | $770.3K | 22.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.50M has been traded on this event in total, $129 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 28,579 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odd-Okra | No | 28,579 | $27.5K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 21,765 | $21.0K |
| Determined-Percentage | No | 10,784 | $10.4K |
| Nimble-Pit | No | 9,189 | $8.8K |
| Husky-Pepperoni | Yes | 8,911 | $330 |
| Live-Underwriting | Yes | 8,476 | $314 |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 6,082 | $225 |
| Occasional-Tilt | Yes | 5,756 | $213 |
| Bleak-Full | No | 5,680 | $5.5K |
| Awesome-Combination | Yes | 5,047 | $187 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.1% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.8% | $395 |
| Oct 23, 12:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $46 |
| Oct 21, 03:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 01:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.7% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 10:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by?via=bro
$3.50M in total volume, with $129 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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