As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 5–15% at 88.0% in U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026? — $12.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 5–15%, is priced at 88.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +9.5 pts; past month: +39.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, 5–15% has traded between 27.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 88.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.0% |
5–15% is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–15% | 88¢ | 88.0% | — | $5.5K | 44.8% |
| 15–25% | 8¢ | 8.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.5K | 20.0% |
| <5% | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.5 pts | $1.6K | 12.8% |
| 25–35% | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.4 pts | $1.0K | 8.2% |
| 35%+ | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $1.7K | 14.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 86¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,814 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ripe-Cake | Yes | 1,814 | $1.6K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 1,200 | $144 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 494 | $59 |
| Uncommon-Gutter-Stance | Yes | 281 | $247 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 243 | $29 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 180 | $22 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 100 | $12 |
| Unnatural-Energy | Yes | 83 | $73 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 77 | $9 |
| Candid-Encirclement | Yes | 71 | $62 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 01:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 01:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 10:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 07:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 9.2% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 5–15% at 88.0%. Next is 15–25% at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026?via=bro
$12.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
5–15%, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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