As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 800–900B at 44.0% in US Trade Deficit in 2026? — $25.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 800–900B, is priced at 44.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since February 26, 2026, 800–900B has traded between 16.5% and 52.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 44.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.0% |
800–900B is favored at 44.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800–900B | 44¢ | 44.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.0K | 7.8% |
| 700–800B | 21¢ | 21.0% | +0.5 pts | $725 | 2.9% |
| 900B–1T | 16¢ | 15.5% | +2.5 pts | $1.6K | 6.3% |
| 600–700B | 10¢ | 10.2% | — | $551 | 2.2% |
| 500–600B | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.3 pts | $454 | 1.8% |
| 1.1T+ | 4¢ | 4.4% | +0.3 pts | $1.3K | 5.2% |
| 1T–1.1T | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $1.6K | 6.5% |
| <500B | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $16.9K | 67.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 30¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 466 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 466 | $261 |
| Untimely-Mood | Yes | 264 | $116 |
| Old-Detection | No | 103 | $57 |
| Limp-Ladle | Yes | 101 | $44 |
| Kindhearted-Steel | Yes | 100 | $44 |
| Snarling-Inspection-External | Yes | 81 | $36 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 75 | $42 |
| Powerful-Waste | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Identical-Inverse | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Nimble-Fun-Maracas | No | 16 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 05:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 02:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $2 |
| Oct 05, 07:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 01:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 01:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 52.0% | $26 |
| Sep 30, 04:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 58.0% | $5 |
| Sep 28, 08:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 49.0% | $1 |
| Sep 23, 04:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $6 |
| Sep 21, 08:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $14 |
| Sep 16, 05:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 800–900B at 44.0%. Next is 700–800B at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-trade-deficit-in-2026?via=bro
$25.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases.
800–900B, priced at 44.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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