Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.0% in US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___? — $4.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
20%
A 20.0% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −14.0 pts30D −14.0 pts
December 31, 202720.0%
December 31, 20263.4%
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 03, 2026: 20.0% – 50.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?
Category
Crypto, Bitcoin, Finance, Politics, Gov Reserve
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.5K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.9K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 20.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -14.0 pts; past month: -14.0 pts.

Since September 03, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 20.0% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 20.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202636.0%
Oct 18, 202634.0%
Oct 19, 202632.5%
Oct 20, 202621.5%
Oct 22, 202620.0%
Oct 23, 202620.0%
Oct 24, 202620.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202720¢20.0%—$3.2K71.1%
December 31, 20263¢3.4%-0.1 pts$1.3K28.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury officially announces that it has purchased Bitcoin between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement must clearly and unambiguously communicate a completed purchase of Bitcoin; statements that the Treasury intends, plans, or is authorized to purchase Bitcoin, including through legislation or an executive order, will not qualify. Bitcoin acquired through seizure, forfeiture, or other non-purchase means, and indirect exposure such as funds or ETFs, will not qualify. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announcement is later reversed or retracted, or whether the Bitcoin is subsequently sold. A qualifying announcement must come from an official U.S. government source or an authorized U.S. government official acting in an official capacity, and must concern a purchase carried out by or on behalf of the Treasury. Qualifying sources include Treasury press releases, statements, websites, social media accounts, and Federal Register notices, as well as recorded or written statements by Treasury officials, the President, or the White House. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 317 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Glaring-MythNo317$254
Belated-GlueYes232$46
Silent-RowboatNo231$185
NoSteinNoGateYes180$36
Wan-GymnasticsNo128$103
Long-Term-OverheadYes95$19
Direct-ChainstayYes72$14
Bright-Charge-GuacamoleYes52$10
Infatuated-NunYes50$10
Clumsy-HubNo34$27

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $250 at 78.8%SELL No — $114 at 73.5%BUY No — $111 at 71.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 05:27 PM ETYesSELL19.0%$4
Oct 20, 05:24 PM ETYesBUY20.0%$4
Oct 20, 05:23 PM ETNoBUY81.0%$32
Oct 20, 05:23 PM ETNoBUY78.8%$250
Oct 20, 05:23 PM ETNoBUY81.0%$16
Oct 16, 04:50 AM ETNoBUY63.0%$50
Oct 15, 02:59 PM ETNoBUY52.0%$10
Oct 15, 12:40 PM ETYesBUY35.0%$14
Oct 14, 12:13 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$6
Oct 14, 11:58 AM ETNoBUY61.0%$49

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-treasury-announces-bitcoin-purchase-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___??

$4.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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