Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.2% in US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? — $9.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
93%
A 93.2% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.4 pts7D −0.4 pts30D +3.4 pts
No93.2%
Yes6.9%
Bid
6¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 29, 2026: 47.0% – 96.7% · Opened at 47.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
Category
Trump, Crypto, Economy, Politics, Crypto Legal, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.1K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 93.2%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: +3.4 pts.

Since June 29, 2026, No has traded between 47.0% and 96.7%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 93.2%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202692.4%
Oct 15, 202692.5%
Oct 16, 202692.5%
Oct 18, 202692.8%
Oct 19, 202693.2%
Oct 20, 202693.2%
Oct 24, 202693.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 93.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No93¢93.2%+0.4 pts$9.1K100.0%
Yes7¢6.9%-0.4 pts$9.1K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: A qualifying transaction requires an official US Treasury payment made in the ordinary course of government operations - such as disbursements, settlements, or transfers - conducted via a public blockchain. Pilot programs, proof-of-concept transactions, and transactions explicitly described as tests or experiments by the Treasury do not qualify. The public announcement confirming the transaction must occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the transaction itself took place. For purposes of this market, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,593 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Failing-ObsidianNo1,593$1.5K
Hospitable-LimoYes652$45
Tremendous-DivideYes556$38
Worldly-DumpYes533$37
Belated-GlueYes528$36
Daring-PirateNo330$307
Daring-PresidentNo205$191
Crazy-FishmongerNo180$168
Straight-ApprehensionNo100$93
Whimsical-SellerNo90$84

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $52 at 93.2%BUY No — $36 at 90.9%BUY No — $18 at 89.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY8.5%$1
Oct 23, 01:16 PM ETNoSELL93.1%$13
Oct 23, 01:16 PM ETNoSELL93.2%$52
Oct 22, 05:02 PM ETNoBUY93.3%$13
Oct 22, 02:18 AM ETYesSELL6.7%$2
Oct 19, 02:05 AM ETYesSELL6.7%$1
Oct 12, 10:04 AM ETYesSELL6.7%$0
Oct 12, 05:01 AM ETYesSELL8.3%$4
Oct 12, 04:28 AM ETNoSELL89.4%$18
Oct 12, 04:28 AM ETYesBUY9.5%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.2%. Next is Yes at 6.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-treasury-transactions-on-blockchain-by-december-31-20260629152656715?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31??

$9.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 93.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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