As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.2% in US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? — $9.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: +3.4 pts.
Since June 29, 2026, No has traded between 47.0% and 96.7%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 93.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 92.4% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.2% |
No is favored at 93.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 93.2% | +0.4 pts | $9.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 6.9% | -0.4 pts | $9.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: A qualifying transaction requires an official US Treasury payment made in the ordinary course of government operations - such as disbursements, settlements, or transfers - conducted via a public blockchain. Pilot programs, proof-of-concept transactions, and transactions explicitly described as tests or experiments by the Treasury do not qualify. The public announcement confirming the transaction must occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the transaction itself took place. For purposes of this market, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,593 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 1,593 | $1.5K |
| Hospitable-Limo | Yes | 652 | $45 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 556 | $38 |
| Worldly-Dump | Yes | 533 | $37 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 528 | $36 |
| Daring-Pirate | No | 330 | $307 |
| Daring-President | No | 205 | $191 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 180 | $168 |
| Straight-Apprehension | No | 100 | $93 |
| Whimsical-Seller | No | 90 | $84 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 01:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.2% | $52 |
| Oct 22, 05:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.3% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.7% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 02:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.7% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 10:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.7% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 05:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.3% | $4 |
| Oct 12, 04:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.4% | $18 |
| Oct 12, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.5% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.2%. Next is Yes at 6.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-treasury-transactions-on-blockchain-by-december-31-20260629152656715?via=bro
$9.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 93.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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