As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.5% in US x China Military clash before 2027? — $219.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.2 pts.
Since January 14, 2026, No has traded between 85.5% and 97.9%. It opened at 92.5% and last traded at 97.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.5% |
No is favored at 97.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.5% | — | $219.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $219.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$219.4K has been traded on this event in total, $160 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,303 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 6,303 | $158 |
| Defiant-Competence-Initiative | Yes | 6,164 | $154 |
| Worn-Tanker | No | 4,927 | $4.8K |
| Harmful-Wrench | No | 3,000 | $2.9K |
| Sneaky-Mama | Yes | 2,943 | $74 |
| Terrific-Wheat | No | 2,885 | $2.8K |
| Alarming-Essential | Yes | 2,843 | $71 |
| Exhausted-Tanktop | No | 2,382 | $2.3K |
| Spanish-Priority | No | 2,029 | $2.0K |
| Agonizing-Takeout | Yes | 1,490 | $37 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 12:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 11:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $10 |
| Oct 19, 06:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 08:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 04:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.5%. Next is Yes at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-military-clash-before-2027?via=bro
$219.4K in total volume, with $160 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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