Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.5% in US x Cuba economic deal by...? — $446.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
12%
A 11.5% price implies roughly a 12-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.5 pts30D −10.0 pts
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 11, 2026: 10.5% – 72.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
Category
Cuba, Geopolitics, Oil, Russia, Trump, Trade War, Venezuela, Economy, embargo
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$446.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.7K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 11.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.

Since June 11, 2026, December 31 has traded between 10.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 11.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202613.5%
Oct 15, 202612.0%
Oct 16, 202612.0%
Oct 18, 202612.0%
Oct 19, 202611.5%
Oct 20, 202611.5%
Oct 24, 202611.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 11.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3112¢11.5%—$34.9K7.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$446.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,081 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Buzzing-BeginnerNo3,081$2.7K
Fearful-CongressYes1,559$179
Joyous-CatalystNo419$371
Known-UseYes402$46
Golden-PackagingYes381$44
Raw-SteamNo352$312
Belated-GlueYes349$40
BelgaronNo309$273
Sizzling-HovercraftYes277$32
Authorized-ApronYes196$23

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $546 at 88.0%SELL No — $515 at 88.0%SELL No — $427 at 88.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 01:24 PM ETNoSELL88.0%$1
Oct 22, 02:48 AM ETYesSELL11.0%$8
Oct 18, 09:14 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$9
Oct 18, 02:01 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$40
Oct 18, 02:52 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$404
Oct 18, 02:52 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$515
Oct 18, 02:52 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$427
Oct 18, 02:52 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$546
Oct 17, 05:19 AM ETNoSELL87.0%$390
Oct 17, 05:19 AM ETNoSELL87.0%$339

Related markets

More Cuba

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

No 87.5% · 24H VOL $11.5K

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 31 8.5% · 24H VOL $3.5K

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

No 85.0% · 24H VOL $12

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of US x Cuba economic deal by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on US x Cuba economic deal by...??

$446.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does US x Cuba economic deal by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of US x Cuba economic deal by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.