As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.5% in US x Cuba economic deal by...? — $446.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.
Since June 11, 2026, December 31 has traded between 10.5% and 72.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 11.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 11.5% |
December 31 is favored at 11.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $34.9K | 7.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$446.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,081 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buzzing-Beginner | No | 3,081 | $2.7K |
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 1,559 | $179 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 419 | $371 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 402 | $46 |
| Golden-Packaging | Yes | 381 | $44 |
| Raw-Steam | No | 352 | $312 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 349 | $40 |
| Belgaron | No | 309 | $273 |
| Sizzling-Hovercraft | Yes | 277 | $32 |
| Authorized-Apron | Yes | 196 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $8 |
| Oct 18, 09:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $9 |
| Oct 18, 02:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $40 |
| Oct 18, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $404 |
| Oct 18, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $515 |
| Oct 18, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $427 |
| Oct 18, 02:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $546 |
| Oct 17, 05:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $390 |
| Oct 17, 05:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $339 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by?via=bro
$446.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 11.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.