As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.0% in USMCA extended in 2026? — $11.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 43.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 92.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.0% |
No is favored at 92.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 92¢ | 92.0% | +0.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 8¢ | 8.0% | -0.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement. The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,894 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vast-Myth | Yes | 2,894 | $232 |
| Unlucky-Pounding | No | 2,573 | $2.4K |
| Belgaron | Yes | 1,086 | $87 |
| Sizzling-Hovercraft | No | 737 | $678 |
| Cuddly-Folder | No | 607 | $559 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 396 | $32 |
| Winged-Nation | No | 248 | $228 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 185 | $170 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 105 | $8 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 99 | $91 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 12:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.7% | $20 |
| Oct 20, 06:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $3 |
| Oct 10, 10:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $6 |
| Oct 06, 06:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $56 |
| Sep 26, 02:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $1 |
| Sep 25, 03:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $22 |
| Sep 25, 03:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $12 |
| Sep 24, 07:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $9 |
| Sep 23, 02:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $8 |
| Sep 23, 08:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.0%. Next is Yes at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/usmca-extended-in-2026-20260701162719768?via=bro
$11.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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