Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

USMCA extended in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.0% in USMCA extended in 2026? — $11.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
92%
A 92.0% price implies roughly a 92-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +0.5 pts30D −1.5 pts
No92.0%
Yes8.0%
Bid
5¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
6¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 01, 2026: 43.5% – 92.5% · Opened at 71.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
USMCA extended in 2026?
Category
Trump, trade, Canada, Mexico, Economy, Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$11.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$2.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 92.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.

Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 43.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 92.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202690.5%
Oct 16, 202691.5%
Oct 18, 202692.5%
Oct 19, 202691.5%
Oct 20, 202692.0%
Oct 23, 202691.5%
Oct 24, 202692.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 92.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No92¢92.0%+0.5 pts$11.7K100.0%
Yes8¢8.0%-0.5 pts$11.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement. The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,894 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Vast-MythYes2,894$232
Unlucky-PoundingNo2,573$2.4K
BelgaronYes1,086$87
Sizzling-HovercraftNo737$678
Cuddly-FolderNo607$559
Winged-HolderYes396$32
Winged-NationNo248$228
Flamboyant-WarmingNo185$170
Evil-RowYes105$8
Belated-GlueNo99$91

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $56 at 91.0%BUY No — $49 at 88.0%SELL No — $48 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 12:13 PM ETYesBUY10.7%$20
Oct 20, 06:53 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$3
Oct 10, 10:22 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$6
Oct 06, 06:57 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$56
Sep 26, 02:32 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$1
Sep 25, 03:54 PM ETYesBUY11.0%$22
Sep 25, 03:21 PM ETYesBUY11.0%$12
Sep 24, 07:34 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$9
Sep 23, 02:23 PM ETYesBUY9.0%$8
Sep 23, 08:52 AM ETNoSELL90.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of USMCA extended in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.0%. Next is Yes at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/usmca-extended-in-2026-20260701162719768?via=bro

How much money has been traded on USMCA extended in 2026??

$11.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does USMCA extended in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of USMCA extended in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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