As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? — $19.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: +5.0 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since May 27, 2026, No has traded between 73.0% and 94.5%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -4.5 pts | $19.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +4.5 pts | $19.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$19.5K has been traded on this event in total, $59 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,111 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wiry-Encounter | Yes | 1,111 | $117 |
| Common-Nitrogen | No | 669 | $599 |
| Belgaron | No | 653 | $584 |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 414 | $43 |
| Pungent-Washbasin | No | 396 | $355 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 370 | $39 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 332 | $297 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 285 | $30 |
| Automatic-Fusarium | No | 261 | $233 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 220 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 06:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $17 |
| Oct 19, 09:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 09:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.1% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 03:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 12:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 08:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 12:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 09:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $62 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year?via=bro
$19.5K in total volume, with $59 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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