As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Nicolás Maduro at 74.8% in Venezuela leader end of 2026? — $98.69M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Nicolás Maduro, is priced at 74.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.8 pts; past week: +3.4 pts; past month: +14.5 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, Nicolás Maduro has traded between 4.4% and 86.4%. It opened at 4.4% and last traded at 76.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.8% |
Nicolás Maduro is favored at 74.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 75¢ | 74.8% | -1.8 pts | $3.64M | 3.7% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 19¢ | 19.0% | +1.5 pts | $2.42M | 2.4% |
| No Head of State | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $1.65M | 1.7% |
| María Corina Machado | 1¢ | 1.0% | +0.3 pts | $1.60M | 1.6% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.26M | 1.3% |
| Edmundo González | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.42M | 1.4% |
| Marco Rubio | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.52M | 1.5% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.31M | 9.4% |
| Frank Donovan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $25.96M | 26.3% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.17M | 2.2% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.07M | 3.1% |
| Donald Trump | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.15M | 1.2% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $891.3K | 0.9% |
| Evan Pettus | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.67M | 5.7% |
| Dan Caine | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.15M | 4.2% |
| Richard Grenell | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $32.81M | 33.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$98.69M has been traded on this event in total, $19.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 57 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 366,547 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 366,547 | $92.4K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | Yes | 36,506 | $27.3K |
| Awkward-Sensitivity | Yes | 35,270 | $26.4K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | Yes | 33,595 | $25.1K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 32,426 | $24.3K |
| Unlucky-Pounding | Yes | 26,382 | $19.7K |
| 0x955c9661… | Yes | 25,879 | $19.4K |
| Lean-Pantyhose | Yes | 23,951 | $17.9K |
| Annual-Bathrobe | No | 19,525 | $4.9K |
| Stormy-Agenda | Yes | 18,094 | $13.5K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Nicolás Maduro at 74.8%. Next is Delcy Rodríguez at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026?via=bro
$98.69M in total volume, with $19.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 57 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
Nicolás Maduro, priced at 74.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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