As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 47.5% in Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? — $108.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 47.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 47.5% and 57.5%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 47.5%.
June 30, 2027 is favored at 47.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 48¢ | 47.5% | -10.0 pts | $8.5K | 7.9% |
| December 31, 2026 | 15¢ | 15.2% | -11.3 pts | $99.6K | 92.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$108.1K has been traded on this event in total, $9.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,858 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 1,858 | $976 |
| Quick-Witted-Appetiser | Yes | 1,648 | $783 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | Yes | 549 | $261 |
| Melodic-Giggle | No | 444 | $233 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 240 | $114 |
| Pleased-Bootie | No | 200 | $105 |
| Winged-Layer | No | 190 | $100 |
| 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda | No | 180 | $94 |
| Zealous-Haversack-Robe | Yes | 179 | $85 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | Yes | 172 | $82 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 51.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 48.0% | $216 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.8% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.7% | $83 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.6% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 05:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.7% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.3% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.9% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 47.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 15.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551?via=bro
$108.1K in total volume, with $9.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 47.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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