Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 47.5% in Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? — $108.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $9.9K.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027
48%
A 47.5% price implies roughly a 48-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −10.0 pts
June 30, 202747.5%
December 31, 202615.2%
Bid
47¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 47.5% – 57.5% · Opened at 57.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
Category
Orban, Hungary, Politics, Viktor Orban
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$108.1K
Volume (24h)
$9.9K
Liquidity
$61.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027 — 47.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 47.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.0 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 47.5% and 57.5%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 47.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027 is favored at 47.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 202748¢47.5%-10.0 pts$8.5K7.9%
December 31, 202615¢15.2%-11.3 pts$99.6K92.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$108.1K has been traded on this event in total, $9.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,858 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Verifiable-ObstacleNo1,858$976
Quick-Witted-AppetiserYes1,648$783
Wry-Friction-BanquetteYes549$261
Melodic-GiggleNo444$233
Perfumed-MoatYes240$114
Pleased-BootieNo200$105
Winged-LayerNo190$100
0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70ddddaNo180$94
Zealous-Haversack-RobeYes179$85
Bossy-Birdcage-PeriodYes172$82

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.0K at 42.2%BUY No — $315 at 79.7%BUY No — $300 at 76.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:01 PM ETNoSELL51.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:01 PM ETYesSELL48.0%$216
Oct 24, 05:42 PM ETYesBUY49.0%$44
Oct 24, 05:38 PM ETNoBUY82.8%$25
Oct 24, 05:37 PM ETNoBUY82.7%$83
Oct 24, 05:37 PM ETNoBUY82.6%$25
Oct 24, 05:36 PM ETNoBUY82.7%$21
Oct 24, 05:35 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:35 PM ETYesSELL17.3%$21
Oct 24, 05:12 PM ETYesBUY18.9%$23

Related markets

More Politics

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep 65.5% · 24H VOL $3.64M

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 22 99.7% · 24H VOL $1.22M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16.7% · 24H VOL $505.1K

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot 51.1% · 24H VOL $457.0K

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49.0% · 24H VOL $391.3K

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 45.9% · 24H VOL $362.4K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 47.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 15.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/viktor-orban-arrested-by-december-31-20260708001041551?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31??

$108.1K in total volume, with $9.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027, priced at 47.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.