As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3.5M-3.75M at 46.0% in Virginia Senate Election: Turnout — $25.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3.5M-3.75M, is priced at 46.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +30.0 pts; past month: +25.9 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, 3.5M-3.75M has traded between 11.2% and 51.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 46.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 28.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 21.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 39.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 45.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.0% |
3.5M-3.75M is favored at 46.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5M-3.75M | 46¢ | 46.0% | +0.5 pts | $10.3K | 40.3% |
| 3.25M-3.5M | 17¢ | 17.0% | -3.5 pts | $1.6K | 6.3% |
| 2.5M-2.75M | 8¢ | 7.5% | -1.5 pts | $4.3K | 16.9% |
| 3M-3.25M | 7¢ | 7.0% | -1.1 pts | $1.3K | 4.9% |
| 2.75M-3M | 5¢ | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K | 7.8% |
| <2.5M | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | 7.0% |
| 4M+ | 3¢ | 3.4% | -2.6 pts | $2.1K | 8.2% |
| 3.75M-4M | 1¢ | 1.1% | -4.9 pts | $2.2K | 8.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.6K has been traded on this event in total, $2.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,461 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noxious-Fibrosis-Coaster | Yes | 1,461 | $672 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,362 | $736 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | No | 461 | $249 |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | Yes | 341 | $157 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 194 | $89 |
| Agitated-Mobster | No | 103 | $56 |
| Vivacious-Equivalent | Yes | 80 | $37 |
| Elated-Conspirator-Copying | No | 80 | $43 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 69 | $37 |
| Deafening-Cyclamen-Sick | No | 50 | $27 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.2% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 47.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.2% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.6% | $77 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3.5M-3.75M at 46.0%. Next is 3.25M-3.5M at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/virginia-senate-election-turnout?via=bro
$25.6K in total volume, with $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
3.5M-3.75M, priced at 46.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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