As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democrat 21%+ at 62.5% in Virginia Senate Election Margin of Victory — $16.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democrat 21%+, is priced at 62.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +19.0 pts; past month: +17.5 pts.
Since August 04, 2026, Democrat 21%+ has traded between 21.0% and 62.5%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 62.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.5% |
Democrat 21%+ is favored at 62.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat 21%+ | 62¢ | 62.5% | +4.0 pts | $6.3K | 38.7% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Democrat 12-15% | 12¢ | 12.5% | -1.5 pts | $650 | 4.0% |
| Democrat 15-18% | 9¢ | 9.3% | -2.9 pts | $656 | 4.1% |
| Democrat 3-6% | 8¢ | 8.0% | +6.8 pts | $1.1K | 6.8% |
| Democrat 18-21% | 7¢ | 6.9% | -1.8 pts | $3.0K | 18.3% |
| Democrat 6-9% | 6¢ | 5.7% | +0.8 pts | $897 | 5.5% |
| Democrat 0-3% | 6¢ | 5.5% | +1.1 pts | $1.2K | 7.6% |
| Democrat 9-12% | 5¢ | 5.5% | +2.9 pts | $798 | 4.9% |
| Republican 0-3% | 3¢ | 2.7% | +1.8 pts | $828 | 5.1% |
| Republican 3%+ | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $785 | 4.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.2K has been traded on this event in total, $274 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 623 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 623 | $234 |
| Ironclad-Housework | No | 416 | $156 |
| Vivacious-Fondue | Yes | 400 | $250 |
| Probable-Semicircle | Yes | 279 | $174 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 279 | $174 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 274 | $172 |
| Yummy-Winter | No | 134 | $50 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 110 | $41 |
| Known-Use | No | 103 | $39 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 87 | $33 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 42.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 42.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 12:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 12:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.9% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democrat 21%+ at 62.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/virginia-senate-margin-of-victory-2026?via=bro
$16.2K in total volume, with $274 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Democrat 21%+, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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