As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.1% in Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? — $45.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since January 16, 2026, No has traded between 82.0% and 96.4%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.0% |
No is favored at 96.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.1% | -0.2 pts | $45.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.2 pts | $45.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$45.0K has been traded on this event in total, $120 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,835 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Signup | No | 2,835 | $2.7K |
| Silver-Cluster | Yes | 1,687 | $66 |
| Reasonable-Withdrawal | Yes | 835 | $33 |
| Small-Bobcat | Yes | 816 | $32 |
| Dull-Universe | No | 554 | $533 |
| 0xf63a5281… | Yes | 507 | $20 |
| Unwelcome-Grin | No | 491 | $472 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 302 | $12 |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 300 | $288 |
| Famous-Goodwill | Yes | 297 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.1% | $113 |
| Oct 21, 05:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.2% | $27 |
| Oct 21, 01:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 10:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 10:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $5 |
| Oct 15, 11:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.1% | $20 |
| Oct 15, 07:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 02:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 02:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 02:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.1%. Next is Yes at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/von-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026?via=bro
$45.0K in total volume, with $120 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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