As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 9.5% in Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? — $50.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 9.5%.
Since July 24, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 8.5% and 11.5%. It opened at 8.5% and last traded at 9.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 9.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $21.2K | 41.9% |
| December 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $29.4K | 58.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$50.6K has been traded on this event in total, $101 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,626 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 1,626 | $154 |
| Tangible-Fuel | Yes | 662 | $63 |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 650 | $588 |
| Admirable-Samurai | No | 500 | $453 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 500 | $452 |
| Sleepy-Council | No | 360 | $326 |
| Growing-Way | No | 171 | $155 |
| Vapid-Zen | No | 112 | $102 |
| Forceful-Gynaecology | No | 72 | $65 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 70 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $99 |
| Oct 22, 08:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $91 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 08:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 08:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $246 |
| Oct 21, 12:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $142 |
| Oct 21, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 11:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $126 |
| Oct 20, 02:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $128 |
| Oct 16, 04:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 9.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/warsh-out-as-fed-chair-by-20260723173321450?via=bro
$50.6K in total volume, with $101 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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