As of October 24, 2026, 09:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 60.5% in Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access? — $1.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 60.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -14.0 pts; past month: -14.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, No has traded between 31.5% and 60.5%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 60.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.5% |
No is favored at 60.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 60¢ | 60.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 40¢ | 39.5% | -4.0 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 39¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.sos.wa.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 295 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 295 | $117 |
| Winged-Holder | No | 162 | $98 |
| Powerless-Bijou | No | 77 | $46 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 60 | $36 |
| Demanding-City | Yes | 21 | $8 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 20 | $12 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 18 | $7 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 13 | $8 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 9 | $3 |
| 0x1b41d2fa… | No | 7 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 10:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 10:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 01:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 01:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 14, 01:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 07:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $7 |
| Oct 12, 05:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $55 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 60.5%. Next is Yes at 39.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/washington-passes-ballot-measure-restricting-transgender-school-sports-access-20260729161600533?via=bro
$1.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.wa.gov/.
No, priced at 60.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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